Handicapping The Royal Rumble

Chris Fitzpatrick

Chris Fitzpatrick goes Vegas-style with the odds for the 2010 Royal Rumble.

 

BEFORE I start an annual feature I enjoy doing each year and give you my odds for the 2010 Royal Rumble, I want to give a brief shout-out to my favorite football team, The Green Bay Packers, for making Super Bowl XLV.  They could become the 2nd #6 seed to win the Super Bowl, and along the way have wins over a #1 seed, two #2 seeds, and a #3 seed, none on home field.

Home field doesn’t mean too much in the NFL playoffs anymore.  One of the major questions I ask myself when I created the odds you see below for the Royal Rumble – how much will Home Field mean for John Cena?

The Favorites

John Cena, 3-1.  Early line had John at 3-2, but I lowered his chances.  His feud with CM Punk has become really compelling TV, and unless Punk gets the WWE Title between now and Wrestlemania, John winning the Rumble doesn’t make a load of sense.  Still, the Rumble is in John’s home town of Boston, and with The Undertaker unsure of a return, you will want a big name main eventing Wrestlemania.  There is the added wrinkle of if Randy Orton beats The Miz in the Rumble title match, and an Orton / Cena fight at Wrestlemania.

John Morrison, 5-1.  I like John’s positioning heading into the Rumble. He put together a nice win against daniel Bryan on Raw recently, seemed to get the best of S(h)eamus, and to be honest, the Miz / Morrison match on the first Raw of 2011 was fantastic.  These two could absolutely be booked well together, have the chemistry, etc.  I would worry that Cena / Punk could overshadow it.

Alberto del Rio, 7-1.  I don’t think he’s going to take it, but then again, Smackdown NEEDS legit talent.  Who is Edge’s challenger at Wrestlemania going to be?  Dolph Ziggler again?  I’m sorry but no – Ziggler right now is where Shawn Michaels was in Survivor Series 1992.  Good enough to wrestle a title match on the card, even as the main event, but just as long as there’s something else attractive on the card as well.

CM Punk, 8-1.  This especially makes sense if Orton goes over Miz.  CM Punk is red hot right now, has his New Nexus team in his corner, and has proven he can run as a major performer. 

The Outside Shots

Wade Barrett, 12-1.  I’ve been saying for a year now – and I wrote an editorial on this too – there’s a unique opportunity here with a young heel and the Royal Rumble as it relates to the Undertaker.  How huge would it be for a young talent like Barrett to cash in a Royal Rumble win to main event Wrestlemania – not for the WWE Title, not for the World Title, but for a chance to be the man who ends the Undertaker’s streak?  Wouldn’t that lend an air of desperation and importance?  3 months of "Wade Barrett gave up the chance to win his first World Title at Wrestlemania because ending the Undertaker’s streak means a permanent place in the history books."  Then, if ‘Taker isn’t ready, Wade can go into a title match.

S(h)eamus, 15-1.  I feel like the Irishman has lost his heat since becoming King of the Ring, which is a shame.  He has the skills on the mic and a clear ring presence.  He’s the most dominant 2nd year superstar since Lesnar.  He could make a title run against Orton work just fine.  The major knock here is the idea of a potential S(h)eamus / Triple H Wrestlemania re-match.  Though how great would a tag team match reuniting evolution alumni Orton and HHH vs Miz and S(h)eamus be on the Raw before Wrestlemania?

Mason Ryan, 20-1.  I realize that he’s a rookie, and I realize that he’s not even announced as being in the match.  But wouldn’t this come from out of nowhere!?  WWE is apparently really high on this guy, and the resemblance to Batista is downright alarming.  Nobody would see this coming, which would make it really interesting.  Of course, it’d also make it really tough to build Wrestlemania around.

The Big Show, 24-1.  He’s been a huge part of the WWE for years, and he has to be winding down his career.  When we look back at him after he retires, we may well ask ourselves "how did a guy this size make it to being the final guy eliminated in the Rumble twice and never win it?"  You have to factor him in, especially with his recent relevance.

Kane, 27-1.  Another HUGE guy, another HUGE Rumble performer, another HUGE surprise that he’s never really sniffed a win.  I doubt he’s in line for another major push like he was this past year, though him working with New Nexus has potential…

The Undertaker, 30-1.  Just humor me.  We were SURE that John Cena was out of a Rumble 2 years ago due to injuries, and his return shocked us.  And Edge last year.  You mean to tell me that if #40 is set to come out and that gong rings, that hundreds of thousands of fans won’t go bat shit?

The Long Shots

Drew McIntyre, 50-1.  My how the mighty have fallen.  Wasn’t this guy the chosen one?  His personal life may be biting him in the ass here.

Daniel Bryan, 65-1.  Lacks the mic presence to build to a major Wrestlemania payoff.

Kofi Kingston, 70-1.  Not only is he the president of the Shelton Benjamin fan club, he’s also a client.  Could be another in a long line of ultra-athletic guys who are permanen mid carders.

Ezekiel Jackson, 80-1.  No real heat yet.  He got a mild pop as a face.  I’m still searching for a heel reaction, and he’s being overshadowed by Mason Ryan.  Those two WILL lock horns on Sunday.

David Otunga, 100-1.  Teasing a Nexus breakout for a long time.  Won’t happen this way.  Would be a Wrestlemania main event on par with Taylor vs Bigelow.

The No Shots

Anyone in Nexus or Corre not named Punk, Ryan, Jackson, or Otunga, 250-1.  No breakout stars yet.  Gabriel and Slater could be a tag team though. 

Anyone who used to be in Legacy, 350-1.  "Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there…with a do-over!"  DiBiase is even outside the midcards.  Rhodes is barely afloat.  Orton isn’t in the match.  Somehow, Orton has the best chance.  Ouch.

The announced field (Mysterio, R-Truth, Kidd, Ryder, Primo, Henry, etc.), 500-1.  Fodder for the big guns.

Yoshi Tatsu, 1000-1.  How is this guy still employed if no light heavyweight division exists?!

William Regal, 2000-1.  How’s that retirement going, Will?

Unannounced Wild Card, 75-1.  Triple H.  Batista.  Hell, even Sting.  Maybe we’re in for a treat. 

 

The 40-man format is facinating in that it gives the young roster a chance to get PPV time.  As long as they don’t go to that 1-minute between entries BS they did in 1995.  Was I supposed to be impressed with Shawn Michaels winning a 38-minute Rumble from the #1 spot when all guys were announced in a half-hour?  Give the Rumble its time.  Fans care more about counting backwards from 10 and seeing who comes out anyway.  Enjoy the event, and if you’d like to discuss the Rumble match, my odds, or anything else wrestling related, please visit the forums!

Discuss this article here: http://forums.wrestlezone.com/showthread.php?p=2780957#post2780957

Go Pack Go,

Chris Fitzpatrick

Forums Moderator

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