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2) Fear of Disappointment
The moment before "it" happens on the 1.2.12 edition of Raw, we'll see it coming. Lights will flicker or go out, a montage of the videos will begin to play in the middle of the broadcast, etc. It doesn't matter how they decide to do it - we'll know it's coming a couple of minutes before the person behind it all actually appears.
During that "moment before the moment", our minds will immediately flash Chris Jericho over and over. The live crowd may even have enough time to start chanting his name. Then, what happens when Chris Jericho actually appears?
My feeling is that wrestling fans across the world will collectively sigh in disappointment. Not immediately, but quickly after the initial adrenaline wears off. Why? It's certainly not because fans won't be happy to see Chris Jericho. It's because we've analyzed all of it to death and he's the most logical option. Unfortunately, the "I told you so!" feeling only lasts so long. We'll quit talking about it and move on.
Vince doesn't want that type of payoff. Not for something THIS big with THIS much time invested. He wants that "Holy Sh*t!" reaction that causes people to CONTINUE to discuss that night for weeks/months after the fact.
That doesn't happen if it's Chris Jericho and Vince McMahon is mindful of that.